Hello Semi (TM)

  Hypercube Developer Website

Technological Singularity And Fiber Optic Internet Market

The rational behind a Synthetic AI Hand Project is straight forward. The entire human race civilization is built by a pair of hands duplicated over and over again doing the little things that collectively becomes civilization. So if we could make a pair of really good AI infused synthetic hands, only one pair of hands would ever get built, and the rest are all just duplicates.

Project details: Synthetic AI Hand Project

1. Fiber Optics technology is on an information technology driven singularity curve that is doubling speeds and halving of costs roughly every year to 18 months bringing benefits around the globe. Sadly not in the UK and many countries with incumbent telecommunications and media companies, and companies under foreign control that fail to understand evolution and seek to shut down discussion whilst lobbying directly in government circles to sell out dated technology by framing it is as the only technology available. This article is written to encourage smart investors, telecom engineers and smart companies to branch out and expand into fiber optics.

2. First point of note is that the rule books on installing fiber networks has been torn up years ago. Despite this, today the majority of installations (in UK for example) uses the outdated methods of installing fiber. These outdated methods start with installation of an empty hollow tube, and then a second install of a single fiber by blowing the fiber through the empty tube. This takes double time and double the effort. While such practices may have been OK decades ago, it becomes commercially fatally flawed when fiber retails for $2 per meter for 96 core. (I am typical using Aliexpress prices throughout this article. Wholesale prices are a lot cheaper when bought in commercial quantities such as by the container load.) At $2 per 96 core, it is easier to pull a 96 core cable through a duct than it is to fret over the cost of that fiber because equipment costs and staff costs are probably the biggest cost on that day than the fiber. Sure it does not apply in all situations, and sure you can pull a 4 core for a quarter of the price, but then you would run into the risk having to install more cables if a fiber or two gets broken, which then puts the whole installation at risk by having to re-cable. Each installation manager will need to decide what is best given their budget, but with the Technological Singularity approaching, it would be wiser to look for a 20 year solution that addresses exponential data explosion with arrival of IoT and data upload for AI which means allowing a lot more cores per cable than a handful.

3. The Technological Singularity is coming and will be hear in about 17 years from the time this article is written.

4. Ray Kurzweil is an incredible genius who noted that human technology is evolving at an exponential path - most notably information technology. If this pace were to continue then by around 2035 technological evolution would become exponential and vertical. This epoch is known as the Technological Singularity.

5. What is incredible about this technological curve is that it has not flinched from its projected trajectory since it was drawn. And the curve can be drawn back to more than a hundred years. In the intervening period such as World War I and Word War II, the curve did not flinch which means we need to absorb the facts as they are and re-calibrate our understanding of this world to give importance to right things. It would appear no matter what, technology will continue to advance creating ever more space for increased data and communications at an exponential rate that can only be satisfied by fiber.

6. Another piece of the Internet puzzle is that Internet use mind share time is the same whether you have fast internet or slow internet. So a half speed internet user will have used exactly half the Internet as someone on double speed. It does beg outlawing of slow internet installations if higher speeds could be delivered. The benefit of such a law is to avoid creating inequalities as someone on half internet would automatically be half as wealthy in a connected world because they are a half person on the internet compared to their peers, which is not healthy for the economy as a whole. So government which is a body inclusive of people from the countryside should regulate to prevent deployment of slow internet if there is a viable option to supply faster internet.

7. Yet another piece of the puzzle is the cost of fiber infrastructure technology. Fiber fusion splicers cost around $1000 now and prices are dropping. They have 6 axis automatic actuators that line up the fiber, heat it, and join it in about 3 minutes. The fiber fuses under surface tension of the different glasses, they line up perfectly with 0.01db loss at that junction. This means a fiber run can have hundreds of joins and still require no repeater from the exchange to the customer! These runs can be as long as 20km or even 50km. The fiber modems or media converters that are fitted to each end of the fiber are SFP modules with SC connectors and they typically operate at data rates of 1Gbs to 10Gbs, and cost under $20. So in a small town, there is typically just one building at the center that reach out to all the suburbs without repeaters and such an architecture runs at a fraction of the cost compared to installing repeaters and telecom boxes in streets. Because equipment costs are a fraction, the roll out of "symmetric fiber Internet" is some 20 times quicker than roll out "broadband Internet". This is because the starting price of equipment costs are lower and so more money can be spent cabling out the network and generating revenue while the rest of the network equipment is purchased as needed. Such high speed roll out is much needed by 5G modems that require a fiber speed connection to each modem in a typical 5G mast.

8. If the exchange buildings were up to 20km apart, all the houses in between could be cabled up for about $150 per household with symmetric 1gbit internet using $2/m cables and $20 SFP fiber modems that linked to the exchange buildings. These then link to the main trunks that would pass through the town. The routers is where intelligent buffering is implemented so as to speed limit the Internet links to share data rate evenly. All of it done with software settings instead of rate limiting through hardware imposed limits for cheapest and fastest roll out of municipal Internet for a given amount of investment.

9. It is estimated this kind of roll out of fiber is 20 times cheaper on costs than copper based roll out and coax cable based Internet roll out. Copper is not just more expensive but also need brick lined and/or water proofed ducts to prevent water incursion into the ducts which would cause the system to fail. Unlike fiber that needs only a 100mm wide trench that is between 200mm to 1m deep to cable up thousands of fibers each operating at 1Gbits per second to 10Gbits or faster. Copper also needs 'cabinets' in the street costing $50,000 or more. They contain hopelessly out of date technology by some 20 years or more. These are ancient technology boards that accept the incoming fiber signals and break it up into multiple channels and convert them to analogue signals that cannot travel very far. Not at all cheap. Fiber does not require this cabinet. In fact no cabinets for up to 20km or much longer if slightly more expensive SFP modules are used.

10. All of this capacity would be soaked up by increasing amounts of data  generated by IoT devices that need to upload their data and AI programs in data centers that need to sift through that data and connect with other data centers as we reach Technological Singularity in about 17 years time from the time this article is written.

11. We encourage everyone to follow direct fiber to home ideas and expand into fiber optic market. If our investors empower and unleash us, we would follow that path with Hypercube Data Centers that rely on fiber optic connections from every home and also make and supply the next generation of fiber routers powered by FPGA back planes for the fastest possible Internet deployment with the up and coming Technological Singularity.

12. We encourage land owners to club together and draw maps for safe passage for fiber cables through their land, and upload legally binding permissions so that fiber providers can run cable through the land along routes prescribed by land owners as being safe. It saves costs for fiber installation companies by avoiding having to seek individual permission from every land owner to run cables through every plot of land. It also means 4G and 5G mobile phone services as well as gigabit Internet will be delivered to rural areas in double quick time. The fiber optic cables are needed to link the 4G and 5G telecom antenna and radio back to the towns and cities where the phone company equipment is located. Without those fiber optic cables and telecom antenna radio sets near you, in the countryside, there is no mobile phone service. Today these antennas, especially the 5G equipment are becoming small as a can of fizzy drink, and so they can be inserted into lamp posts and become for the most part invisible.

13. There will always be companies that pretend they are delivering fiber to an area using big words, but fail to mention that while the fiber may pass through your area, that you are not getting it. The way this con has been played out tirelessly over hundreds of thousands of villages, towns and homes is particularly important to take note of. The first question you should ask as a politician and as a representative of your community is whether ALL homes or businesses through which a fiber installation runs can get symmetric gigabit fiber connected for average cost of $150 per home for average distance of less than 100m from the cable, and if they can service the community within 30 days should a request to install fiber is put in. If the answer is no, then this is a fiber company that you do not need to support or fund.  There are plenty of fiber companies who can cable up rural areas for this kind of cost and are very successful at it. There are also plenty of city companies that are very successful with these kinds of numbers. So your advise as a politician to these companies making fake promises of installing fiber (with no intention of connecting up residents to the fiber) is to go on a fiber installation course run by an existing company that is successfully installing symmetric gigabit fiber and making money and make sure they understand best practice before they make another bid again in your area. If the companies are too small to service the entire community, in a reasonable time frame, then break up the contract into smaller pieces and give it to separate companies that can then prove they can install fiber for the smaller communities they are contracted to service.

14. Another ruse that fake fiber companies have been using is to claim they are the only ones that can provide ROI (Return On Investment) because they can provide billions of gigabit of data passing through it than a small company. This is fake claim because there is no evidence for it. The evidence is exact opposite because when they install fiber, the other end is analogue and a street cabinet which cannot provide this kind of data. The evidence is that analogue cabinets in the street fill up with slow speed analogue cards that eats into customer budgets and patience and so there is no hope of filling the fiber links with data with this kind of equipment and fake claims of ROI seeking to prevent smaller companies from installing fiber. If instead the fiber is installed by small companies, they are more than likely seek out customers that use their fiber for the immense data bandwidths that fiber provides. Thus we actually find that companies that install fiber shift far more data and provide far more ROI with lower prices than fake fiber companies. The evidence is that fiber companies are fully booked up installing fiber everywhere and they must restrict themselves to tall buildings with a lot of customers to bring maximum benefit in fewest possible site visits. The evidence is that as they grow, they address smaller and smaller buildings. So there is plenty of scope for investors to keep on investing and expanding fiber. Even in places like rural countryside, the maths for new fiber install techniques allows fiber to be installed and the costs recovered in a period as short as 2 years. Not since the beginnings of railways has such opportunities have arisen.

Demand for data will continue to double every year or two consistent with Technology Singularity Curve and so it becomes an obligation to find ways to debate and side step all obstacles.

15. Another one of these obstacles loaded against smaller fiber companies is "Dark Fiber Tax". This is like a window tax that stood the test of legal challenges for 150+ years until everyone got fed up and abolished it. It is easy to tax everything including daylight. The window tax led to daylight robbery schemes the likes of which have been laughed out of existence ever since. Dark Fiber Tax is similarly administered in the UK with laughable consequences surviving every legal challenge to date. The biggest consequence is that big companies don't pay it, while small companies must pay it and all the smaller companies have complained bitterly of these excesses. Why should they pay it while big companies don't have to? And with everyone needing fiber data links, why should anyone pay this window tax? The money does not go to telecom users. Its like taxing gravy to pay train operators to run their trains. Think of all those people who will need to catch a bus if the gravy train tax is abolished!! Likewise with dark fiber tax that prevents fiber being installed and sold at its correct price. It needs to abolished to allow fiber to be installed everywhere for everyone. Otherwise all that happens is that the Technological Singularity arrives but not to places that have sought to punish their citizens with this new daylight robbery scheme of a window tax that prevents them from joining the Internet. We already know countryside with half speed Internet
results in exactly half citizens using half the data as those in the cities because everyone has the same amount of time for Internet each day. So all those in favor of dark fiber tax is also in favor of half citizens in a world that doesn't support these positions.

16. PON is another word incumbents often use to try to slow down adoption of best practices and fast fiber optics roll out. PON (Passive Optical Network) joins several fibers into one cable and have one SFP or similar fiber module at one end and anything up to 64 SFP modules at the other end. Already we can see a problem here - the fiber module modules are all specialized and non-standard. They need to take their turn to multiplex signals on to one fiber. By the time all the electronics has gone in for this kind of networking, you are no longer paying $14 for an SFP module. The routers become extremely complex because they have to implement all of the TDM (Time Division Multiplexing) in hardware and software which is very costly. So skip PON altogether and buy only cheap gigabit SFP modules and robust routers that are produced at lowest costs that accept standard SFP modules and implement all the networking in software.

17. If going it at the deep end with hundreds of thousands of customers to millions of customers, think one step ahead for the routers. It is far easier to make your own high level routers out of FPGA than it is to buy a router from a third party. You simply hire experts on FPGA and router technology and commission your own router boards to be made. These are the same experts router manufacturers hire to make their routers. The high end FPGAs can cost thousands of dollars but they can handle millions to billions of packets per second. If your dedicated team of engineers produce their own router, they pay for themselves in no time because once you have your own routers, you can copy the board to make as many routers as you need and scale your business at exceptional speed without an associated big capex for equipment that will likely hold your company back.

Join us on Twitter #HelloHypercube to follow the project

Hypercube PCBs come with their own interchangeable software to mix and match functions as needed. Designed around IoT needs, we make prototyping work fast and effortless.

I Home | More |

Electronics Store
Opening Soon

Copyright (C) Hypercube Semicondutors 2018